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Beijing has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.