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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."